The Bank of Canada reiterated last Tuesday its conditional pledge to keep its key-lending rate at a record low until July, but took a more hawkish view on inflation by indicating the risks to its outlook are “roughly balanced” as opposed to tilted to the downside.

That was the one significant change in its scheduled interest-rate announcement, and analysts might interpret this as a first step by the central bank to ready markets for an interest-rate hike.

“The Bank of Canada is now walking not crawling towards the exit,” said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at fx.360.com, following the release of the statement.

“Change is afoot. Evolutionary change, but change nonetheless,” added Stewart Hall, economist at HSBC Securities Canada.

For nearly a year, the central bank has pledged to keep its benchmark rate at 0.25 per cent until July in an effort to pump up economic growth, on the condition that inflation would not hit its preferred two per cent target until mid-2011. The central bank’s mandate is to set its key policy rate at a level to achieve two per cent inflation.

In previous statements, the central bank had suggested inflation risks were titled downward because of the possible need to engage in quantitative easing, in which the Bank of Canada would flood financial markets with cash in an effort to spur lending and combat deflation.

But through the statement, the central bank might be indicating deflation is no longer a concern.

“The bank judges that the main macroeconomic risks to the inflation projection are roughly balanced,” it said, with upside risks being stronger-than-projected growth, while a protracted recovery and strong Canadian dollar flagged as downside risks.

Hall said this shift in nuance was “indicative of the need for a policy change at some point.”

The change in the inflation outlook emerged after Statistics Canada reported that the economy grew at a five per cent annualized rate in the fourth quarter of last year – blowing past market expectations for a four per cent gain and the central bank’s original 3.3 per cent forecast. Economists say the fourth-quarter performance has set the stage for another robust gain, of perhaps four per cent or more, for the first three months of 2010.

Recent data indicate that both the headline and core inflation rates have moved much closer to the two per cent level than the central bank had expected. Under the bank’s forecast, the two per cent level would not be reached until the third quarter of next year.

“Core inflation has been slightly firmer than projected, the result of both transitory factors and the higher level of economic activity,” the central bank said in its one-page statement. “The outlook for inflation should continue to reflect the combined influences of stronger domestic demand, slowing wage growth, and overall excess (economic slack).”

In its economic outlook in January, the central bank said stubborn unit labour costs along with increases in property taxes and other administered prices accounted for the recent “stickiness” of core inflation.

The longer inflation stays “sticky,” analysts say, the more likely that the output gap, or the measure of excess economic capacity, is narrowing at a faster pace than previous central bank expectations.

The bank has said it anticipated the output gap to close in the third quarter of 2011. A large amount of excess production capacity suggests a lack of consumer demand, and gives producers little to no pricing power.

Meanwhile, the central bank also acknowledged that economic activity has been “slightly higher” than its own projections, with the five per cent gain in the fourth quarter powered by “vigorous domestic demand” and a recovery in exports.

“The underlying factors supporting Canada’s recovery are largely unchanged – policy stimulus, increased confidence, improved financial conditions, global growth and higher terms of trade,” the bank statement said.

It added that “persistent strength” in the Canadian currency and the “low absolute level” of U.S. demand would continue to act as “significant drags” on economic activity.

“The Bank of Canada has walked a fine line with its latest decision, though overall it is undeniable that the risks to Canadian monetary policy are starting to tilt upwards,” said Eric Lascelles, chief economics and rates strategist at TD Securities. He added the firm’s view was that the central bank would not begin raising rates until the fourth quarter, “but it is hardly inconceivable that this could now come a touch sooner, in September or possibly even July.”

The central bank’s next statement on interest rates is April 20, and two days later it will release its updated economic forecast. Meanwhile, the governor, Mark Carney, has scheduled two speeches this month in which he may provide further guidance as to how the bank would behave as its conditional pledge comes to an end.

Source:
Edmonton Journal

The seasonally adjusted annual rate¹ of housing starts reached 186,300 units in January 2010. This is an increase from an annual rate of 176,100 units in December 2009, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). According to final figures, actual housing starts for 2009 totalled 149,081 units, with activity improving as the year progressed.

“Housing starts improved in both the singles and multiples segments in January,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “These increases are similar to the ones that occurred in December.”

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 4.4 per cent to 165,200 units in January. Urban multiple starts increased by 5.7 per cent to 76,300 units while single urban starts increased by 3.3 per cent to 88,900 units.

January’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 19.8 per cent in British Columbia, by 7.3 per cent in Quebec, by 2.3 per cent in Atlantic Canada, and by 1.5 per cent in the Ontario. In the Prairie region, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased by 4.8 per cent.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 21,100 units in January².

Meanwhile, Statistics Canada said Monday the value of building permits fell in November by 4.6% from the previous month to $5.9-billion. Still, that was 23.1% higher than November 2008 and 62.8% higher than February 2009, “when the lowest value during the economic downturn was recorded,” the federal agency said.

“However, November’s value remained below values recorded in 2007 and early 2008.”

The decline was due to a drop in the non-residential sector, which offset increases in the residential sector, the agency said.

For more information, call 1-800-668-2642.

¹ All starts figures in this release, other than actual starts, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) — that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels.

² CMHC estimates the level of rural starts for each of the three months of the quarter, at the beginning of each quarter. During the last month of the quarter, CMHC conducts the survey in rural areas and revises the estimate.

CAAMP has recently released a report on potential rate increases and their impact on mortgage debt levels.
To view a copy visit www.caamp.org

Bank of Canada Interest Rate

Source: Bank of Canada
*Bank of Canada statement included reference to hold rate to end of second quarter 2010

Bank Prime Lending Rate

Source: Bank of Canada

US Federal Reserve Board Discount Rate

Source: US Federal Reserve

Exchange Rate $CDN($US)

Source: Bank of Canada

Government of Canada Bonds

Source: Bank of Canada

Total New Housing Starts (Seasonable adjusted and annualized)

Source: CMHC Housing Now – December 2009 and December 2008.
This seasonally adjusted data goes through stages of revision at different times of the year.

Average MLS resale price for local markets

Source: Canadian Real Estate Association

Royal Lepage 2009 Q4 Hourse Price Survey

Detached Bungalows

Standard Two Storey

Standard Condominium

Source: Royal Lepage