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While Canada’s economy is closely linked to that of its southern neighbor, it has considerable relative strengths. Its banking system is more tightly regulated, so indulged less intensively in the subprime mortgage and derivatives shenanigans that brought the U.S. system to its knees.
The Canadian government was also more disciplined in terms of fiscal stimulus at the bottom of the recession. As a result, the 2010 budget deficit projected by the Economist panel of forecasters is only 4.5 percent of GDP — against 8.9 percent in the United States. Further, Canada has a relatively larger resources sector than the U.S. economy, an advantage when energy and commodity prices are drawn upwards by largely Asian demand.
The Bank of Canada has begun to reverse the stimulative monetary policy it adopted in April 2009, raising its target overnight interest rate twice so far to a current level of 0.75 percent. Even if that’s now held steady, the central bank has more leeway than the Federal Reserve with its near-zero rates. Meanwhile, 10-year Canadian government bonds currently yield 2.77 percent compared with 2.47 percent for U.S. Treasuries, so savers are marginally closer to getting a decent deal. Canada’s savings rate jumped to 5.9 percent in the second quarter, close to the 6.1 percent seen south of the border.
Martin Hutchinson is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist who provides Views on emerging markets and on monetary and macroeconomic issues. He is a former merchant/investment banker with 27 years experience.
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http://blogs.reuters.com
Statistics Canada has just released the economic accounts for the second quarter of 2010.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.5% in the second quarter, after increasing by 1.4% in the first quarter. Final domestic demand advanced 0.9%, led by business investment in machinery and equipment. Real GDP increased by 0.2% in June.

Consumer expenditures on goods and services, as well as business investment on residential structures, grew at a slower rate than in the first quarter.
Export and import volumes both rose, with growth in imports outpacing growth in exports for a second consecutive quarter.
Expressed at an annualized rate, real GDP grew 2.0% in the second quarter, after expanding by 5.8% in the first quarter. This compared with a 1.6% second quarter rate of increase in the US economy.
The output of the goods-producing industries rose 1.9%, while that of the services industries edged up 0.1%. This marks the third consecutive quarter in which the output of the goods-producing industries has significantly outpaced that of the services industries.
Consumer spending on goods and services advanced 0.7% in the second quarter, slowing from the 1.0% gain recorded in the first quarter. Spending on both durable and semi-durable goods declined.
Expenditures on new and used motor vehicles fell 2.9%. Households spent less on electricity and natural gas for a second consecutive quarter.
Spending on furniture, furnishings, and household equipment and maintenance edged up 0.1%. Consumers had increased their expenditures on this category of goods and services by at least 1.0% in each of the three previous quarters.
Spending on services rose 1.2%, after advancing 0.7% in the first quarter. Growth in spending by Canadians travelling abroad, together with purchased transportation, contributed significantly to the increase in consumer spending on services.
Meanwhile, housing investment grew 0.3% in the second quarter, the slowest quarterly rate of increase since the first quarter of 2009. Renovation activity was down 0.8%, following four consecutive quarters of growth. Expenditure on ownership transfer costs related to housing resale activity declined for a second consecutive quarter, after recording large gains through most of 2009.
Investment in new housing construction (+6.9%) continued to advance, the third consecutive quarterly gain of over 6.0%.

Business investment in plant and equipment expanded 3.5%, the largest quarterly gain since 2005. The advance was due mainly to a 6.7% increase in spending on machinery and equipment. Investment in computers and other office equipment (+19.3%) and in industrial machinery (+12.6%) led the second-quarter gain.
Exports of goods and services grew 1.5%, the fourth consecutive quarterly gain. Increases in exports of automotive products (+12.8%) and exports of machinery and equipment (+6.2%) were the main contributors to growth in goods exports. Exports of services, notably commercial services, also continued to advance.
Imports of goods and services were up 3.9%, also the fourth consecutive quarterly increase. Machinery and equipment (+8.7%) and industrial goods and materials (+4.9%) contributed the most to the increase in imported goods, while travel services (+6.8%) led the growth in imported services.
Businesses accumulated $13 billion in inventories in the second quarter, following an accumulation of $6 billion in the first quarter. This was in contrast to the reduction of inventories recorded in each quarter of 2009.
Manufacturers’ inventories increased for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2008. Inventories in both retail and wholesale trade also rose.
Agricultural inventories fell for a second consecutive quarter as exports of grains and cattle remained strong.
The economy-wide ratio of stock to sales remained unchanged from the previous quarter. Businesses held inventories equivalent to 65 days of sales.
The price of goods and services produced in Canada rose 0.2% in the second quarter. Price increases for coal and iron ore were largely offset by price declines for crude petroleum and motor fuels and lubricants.
Overall, the price of final domestic demand was up 0.1%. The price of government current expenditure on goods and services increased in the second quarter, as did the price of both residential and non-residential structures.
The price of consumer goods and services declined 0.1%. This was the first decline in the price of consumer goods and services since the fourth quarter of 2008. A decrease in the price of motor fuels and lubricants was a major contributor to the second quarter decline.
Canada’s real gross domestic income, a measure of purchasing power, grew 0.5% in the second quarter, the fourth consecutive quarter of growth. This gain mirrors the change in GDP, as Canada’s terms of trade (a measure of export prices relative to import prices) were very similar to those of the previous quarter.
Total funds raised by domestic non-financial sectors reached $273 billion in the second quarter, up from $222 billion in the first quarter.
The increase in financing was concentrated in the government sector. Borrowing by all levels of government increased in the second quarter. This was led by bond issuances by federal and provincial governments.
Funds raised by non-financial private corporations advanced to $64 billion. Borrowing through loans increased by $21 billion, the first increase in loans since the fourth quarter of 2008, while bond issuances declined.
Household borrowing eased from $102 billion in the first quarter to $91 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to the upward trend in borrowing seen in previous quarters. Lower consumer credit and mortgage borrowing accounted for most of the decline in the second quarter.
The non-resident sector continued to be a net lender to the domestic economy in the second quarter. This lending reflects Canada’s quarterly current account deficit, which has continued since the fourth quarter of 2008. Most of these funds were provided to the Canadian economy in the form of purchases of government securities and acquisitions of corporate shares.
Additional data tables are available in the Canadian Economic Accounts Quarterly Review.
The American Dream is Over
“I do believe in the American Dream,” said President Bush in 2002. “Owning a home is a part of that dream, it just is. Right here in America, if you own your own home, you’re realizing the American dream.”
Bush was echoing a theme that reaches back at least to Herbert Hoover: When the government encourages homeownership, the story goes, it strengthens individuals and communities and thereby fosters the American Dream.
Fast forward to 2010, and yesterday home sales in the U.S. broke a new record, plunging by 27% in July.
The U.S. housing market is at a point where it seems to be dragging the United States down as if the country were some hapless satellite of the old Soviet Union that refuses to face the facts. The game is over, the old regime is technically dead.
American home ownership, artificially created over decades by trillion-dollar government-backed loans, guarantees and regulation, continues to operate under the old rules. Somehow, the mess that Washington created is still thought of as the mess that Washington can still fix.
Millions of Americans face foreclosure, the value of their homes below the value of their nominal mortgages. Lenders are carrying mortgages that have little or no value, or writing them off. Foreclosures accounted for 22% of total house purchases in July.
The only real hope for a revival in the market is a return of buyers with confidence in the economy and in an environment where prices reflect the market rather than more government flim-flam support.
The American Dream, that has lured tens of millions of all nations to our shores in the past century has not been a dream of material plenty, though that has doubtlessly counted heavily. It has been a dream of being able to grow to fullest development as a man and woman, unhampered by the barriers which had slowly been erected in the older civilizations, unrepressed by social orders which had developed for the benefit of classes rather than for the simple human being of any and every class.
James Truslow Adams
“Epic of America”
Read more:
http://www.financialpost.com
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Bank of Canada raises benchmark interest rate
The Bank of Canada has raised again its benchmark interest rate by 0.25% to 0.75% on Tuesday, the second consecutive hike after more than a year of record low rates.
The bank had previously raised its benchmark rate to 0.5 per cent in June after having kept rates at emergency lows since April 2009.
In the accompanying statement, Mark Carney and his team said:
The Bank expects the economic recovery in Canada to be more gradual than it had projected in its April MPR, with growth of 3.5 per cent in 2010, 2.9 per cent in 2011, and 2.2 per cent in 2012. This revision reflects a slightly weaker profile for global economic growth and more modest consumption growth in Canada. The Bank anticipates that business investment and net exports will make a relatively larger contribution to growth.
The bank also made it clear that future rate hikes are not guaranteed.
“Any further reduction of monetary stimulus would have to be weighed carefully against domestic and global economic developments,” the bank added in its statement.
In raising the rate, the bank is effectively slowing down Canada’s economy, which had shown signs of significant strength in recent months, by boosting the country’s dollar and curbing exports. In terms of borrowing costs, strong demand for Canadian debt from foreigners should work to keep longer term yields down, so the effect of the bank’s hikes will be felt more on the short term end of the yield curve.
Economists predict Carney will raise rates again in September before pausing at one of two meetings in the fourth quarter, when economic growth may slow to a 3.1 percent pace instead of the 3.5 percent the bank predicted in April.
