Statistics Canada has just released the economic accounts for the second quarter of 2010.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.5% in the second quarter, after increasing by 1.4% in the first quarter. Final domestic demand advanced 0.9%, led by business investment in machinery and equipment. Real GDP increased by 0.2% in June.

Consumer expenditures on goods and services, as well as business investment on residential structures, grew at a slower rate than in the first quarter.

Export and import volumes both rose, with growth in imports outpacing growth in exports for a second consecutive quarter.

Expressed at an annualized rate, real GDP grew 2.0% in the second quarter, after expanding by 5.8% in the first quarter. This compared with a 1.6% second quarter rate of increase in the US economy.

The output of the goods-producing industries rose 1.9%, while that of the services industries edged up 0.1%. This marks the third consecutive quarter in which the output of the goods-producing industries has significantly outpaced that of the services industries.

Consumer spending on goods and services advanced 0.7% in the second quarter, slowing from the 1.0% gain recorded in the first quarter. Spending on both durable and semi-durable goods declined.

Expenditures on new and used motor vehicles fell 2.9%. Households spent less on electricity and natural gas for a second consecutive quarter.

Spending on furniture, furnishings, and household equipment and maintenance edged up 0.1%. Consumers had increased their expenditures on this category of goods and services by at least 1.0% in each of the three previous quarters.

Spending on services rose 1.2%, after advancing 0.7% in the first quarter. Growth in spending by Canadians travelling abroad, together with purchased transportation, contributed significantly to the increase in consumer spending on services.

Meanwhile, housing investment grew 0.3% in the second quarter, the slowest quarterly rate of increase since the first quarter of 2009. Renovation activity was down 0.8%, following four consecutive quarters of growth. Expenditure on ownership transfer costs related to housing resale activity declined for a second consecutive quarter, after recording large gains through most of 2009.

Investment in new housing construction (+6.9%) continued to advance, the third consecutive quarterly gain of over 6.0%.

Business investment in plant and equipment expanded 3.5%, the largest quarterly gain since 2005. The advance was due mainly to a 6.7% increase in spending on machinery and equipment. Investment in computers and other office equipment (+19.3%) and in industrial machinery (+12.6%) led the second-quarter gain.

Exports of goods and services grew 1.5%, the fourth consecutive quarterly gain. Increases in exports of automotive products (+12.8%) and exports of machinery and equipment (+6.2%) were the main contributors to growth in goods exports. Exports of services, notably commercial services, also continued to advance.

Imports of goods and services were up 3.9%, also the fourth consecutive quarterly increase. Machinery and equipment (+8.7%) and industrial goods and materials (+4.9%) contributed the most to the increase in imported goods, while travel services (+6.8%) led the growth in imported services.

Businesses accumulated $13 billion in inventories in the second quarter, following an accumulation of $6 billion in the first quarter. This was in contrast to the reduction of inventories recorded in each quarter of 2009.

Manufacturers’ inventories increased for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2008. Inventories in both retail and wholesale trade also rose.

Agricultural inventories fell for a second consecutive quarter as exports of grains and cattle remained strong.

The economy-wide ratio of stock to sales remained unchanged from the previous quarter. Businesses held inventories equivalent to 65 days of sales.

The price of goods and services produced in Canada rose 0.2% in the second quarter. Price increases for coal and iron ore were largely offset by price declines for crude petroleum and motor fuels and lubricants.

Overall, the price of final domestic demand was up 0.1%. The price of government current expenditure on goods and services increased in the second quarter, as did the price of both residential and non-residential structures.

The price of consumer goods and services declined 0.1%. This was the first decline in the price of consumer goods and services since the fourth quarter of 2008. A decrease in the price of motor fuels and lubricants was a major contributor to the second quarter decline.

Canada’s real gross domestic income, a measure of purchasing power, grew 0.5% in the second quarter, the fourth consecutive quarter of growth. This gain mirrors the change in GDP, as Canada’s terms of trade (a measure of export prices relative to import prices) were very similar to those of the previous quarter.

Total funds raised by domestic non-financial sectors reached $273 billion in the second quarter, up from $222 billion in the first quarter.

The increase in financing was concentrated in the government sector. Borrowing by all levels of government increased in the second quarter. This was led by bond issuances by federal and provincial governments.

Funds raised by non-financial private corporations advanced to $64 billion. Borrowing through loans increased by $21 billion, the first increase in loans since the fourth quarter of 2008, while bond issuances declined.

Household borrowing eased from $102 billion in the first quarter to $91 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to the upward trend in borrowing seen in previous quarters. Lower consumer credit and mortgage borrowing accounted for most of the decline in the second quarter.

The non-resident sector continued to be a net lender to the domestic economy in the second quarter. This lending reflects Canada’s quarterly current account deficit, which has continued since the fourth quarter of 2008. Most of these funds were provided to the Canadian economy in the form of purchases of government securities and acquisitions of corporate shares.

Additional data tables are available in the Canadian Economic Accounts Quarterly Review.

Alberta will lead the country in economic growth next year after falling behind the national average this year, Craig Wright, chief economist for RBC, told the audience during the presentation of his Market Outlook 2010 report on the provincial, federal and international economies.

Growth of investment in the energy sector combined with positive sales forecasts, stabilized pricing models and seasonal hiring needs will boost employment as the industry prepares for winter oil and gas production.

On June, TD Economics had already forecast that the province’s real gross domestic product growth will be 3.5 per cent in 2011 after a 2.8 per cent hike in 2010. It forecasts real GDP growth of 3.6 per cent this year and 2.5 per cent in 2011 for the entire Canadian economy.

Another report by Scotiabank said that Alberta will experience a sharp economic rebound during 2010 and it will  lead all of the Canadian provinces in terms of GDP growth at 4.1%.

For 2011, Scotiabank is forecasting that Alberta’s economic growth will be 3.4 per cent while Canada as a whole will average 2.7 per cent.

A strong pickup in investment will fuel growth in the energy and manufacturing sectors,

“Investment has perked up in the oil sands, as easing costs and higher oil prices revived investment intentions in late 2009, with $2.2 billion in outlays scheduled for 2010 alone. Renewed activity in the industry will lead to significant benefits flowing through the economy, with manufacturing and services all heavily tied to conditions in the energy sector. While the bulk of investment will stem from oil sand development and tight oil plays, recent revisions to the province’s royalty framework are a major positive for the natural gas industry.”

The report also showed how the province has also made efforts to diversify its economy with the development of its health sciences industry. Notably, the Alberta Innovates initiative provides funding for a wide variety of domains, including health, energy and the environment.

Alberta’s economy is one of the strongest in Canada, supported by the petroleum industry and, to a lesser extent, agriculture and technology. According to the Fraser Institute, Alberta has very high levels of economic freedom. On its Canadian Provincial Investment Climate Report, Alberta continues to rank top  setting the pace and leading the country in terms of creating and maintaining a positive investment climate. The report also claims that it is “by far the most free economy in Canada, and is rated as the 2nd most free economy of all U.S. states and Canadian provinces.”

By Peter Buchanan
research.cibcwm.com

Besides Pamplona, the bulls were out in some force this week on Wall Street, after a lengthy absence. Whether they continue to roam quite so freely will depend in no small part on the upcoming S&P earnings season, which begins Monday.

Market eyes will also be on China. That country, a centre of slowdown fears that have battered commodities, reports Q2 GDP on Thursday, becoming the first major economy to do so.

Investors and companies have had their plates full of market moving developments lately. Eurozone contagion fears dominated the headlines during the spring. More  recently, concerns have shifted to the US economy itself.  Forward-looking data is always more critical in interesting times. Analysts are expecting a year-on-year rise of 23% in earnings for the S&P 500 in the quarter ended. How well firms do against that target will as always be of significance. But even more important, given the fast-changing backdrop, will be the clues provided in the guidance of what to expect down the road.  Announcements from some firms have suggested that meeting last quarter’s targets may not prove so difficult. However, the year-on-year comps will get more challenging from here as the earnings recovery matures. Given that fact, a loss of fiscal support and drag from the higher dollar, investors will be more interested in firms’ views on their ability to validate the 27% and 31% earnings gains pencilled in for Q3 and Q4, based on the Thomson data.

Double-dip recession fears appear to have eased a bit in recent days, contributing to the improved tone. That’s not so surprising. While the housing data has been abysmal, two broader gauges of the US economy’s health are still some way from recessionary territory. The yield curve has only flattened by about a fifth as much as it did before the last two recessions (Chart). The ISM index, while softer, is still 14 points above the level typically associated with a broad economic pullback.

The IMF’s upgrade of its forecast for 2010 global growth also helped to ease gloom on Thursday.  Part of the story there was China. With fiscal retightening set to slow growth in the indebted developed nations to a crawl of 2% or less next year, the global recovery’s prospects will rest even more on the shoulders of emerging market businesses and consumers. China’s GDP report will indicate whether those in one key market are up to the task.