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Meredith Whitney at FTThe U.S. housing market will experience a second recession, forcing banks to post additional loan-loss reserves, said analyst Meredith Whitney, founder of New York-based Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, in an interview on CNBC Squawk Box, where she also talked about deflation in the economy, hinting that the housing crisis is far from over, due to strategic defaults, long term high unemployment, and increasing foreclosures.

“Most investors are not baking in a double-dip in housing,” Ms. Whitney said, “You’re going to see banks post additional reserves associated with this double-dip in housing, and that means weak performance going forward.”

U.S. home prices fell more than 30% from their peak in 2006 through the first quarter of 2009, prompting banks to take writedowns on mortgage loans. Housing starts have increased 24% since the low in April 2009 as mortgage rates remained near record lows and the U.S. government offered tax credits to home buyers.

Ms. Whitney said she didn’t foresee the trend of some homeowners paying off credit cards and other debt instead of making mortgage payments, as they await better terms on mortgage modification programs.

“Banks are actually accelerating their foreclosure programs, accelerating their short-sale programs. People who have been paying their mortgage now have to start paying rent. You’ll see a real leg down in supply displacement when you foreclose and you have to sell.”

Job cuts by state and local governments will also contribute to a “rough second half” for the U.S. economy, she said.

Financial reform will slow the velocity of money and cause “de-banking” as more Americans lose access to some banking services, making it “more expensive to be poor in this country,” Ms. Whitney said.

Meredith Whitney is a frequent contributor to CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg News programs. Her extremely bearish view on banks landed her on the cover of the August 18, 2008 issue of Fortune Magazine. Even before the problems in September that befell Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers, she is quoted as saying, “It feels like I’m at the epicenter of the biggest financial crisis in history, however even a broken clock is right twice a day”.

In 2007, Whitney was listed as the second best stock picker in the capital markets industry on Forbes.com’s list of “The Best Analysts: Stock Pickers”, as well as being named “one of NY Post’s 50 Most Powerful Women in NYC.

Whitney, who was ranked as one of Fortune 500’s “50 Most Powerful Women in Business” in 2008, has also won CNBC’s “Power Player of the Year” over Jamie Dimon, Ben Bernanke, and Hank Paulson.



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